One of the premier games today is the Seattle Mariners at the Boston Red Sox. The Mariners are 5-5 and head into Boston with Jamie Moyer taking the mound. The Red Sox, 6-3, are sending ace Curt Schilling to the mound in response. Looking over this game, I feel the line is pretty much accurate, but who in their right mind bets Curt Schilling at -220 against a team that realistically has a shot of winning? I sure don’t. This is one of those games where the smart bettor can create a ton of value and come out a winner not matter what the result is. Imagine you bet on the Red Sox at -220 and lose. Now you must win 2.2 bets just to get back to even. That’s not good. Let me show you how to win this game.

The answer my sports betting friend is to play the Run Line. I have utilized this line for a long time and it has made me a lot of money. In this game, for example, you can take ace Curt Schilling and the Red Sox at -1.5 runs on the Run Line. When you do, your line goes all the way from -220 down to -110—a full $1.10 off! Who would not want a premier pitcher on a good team at home against a mediocre team for just -110? Concerned about the 1.5 runs? Don’t be. A large majority of games finish with the victor winning by 2 or more runs. In fact, this is even more common when one team is much better than the other. The Seattle Mariners and Boston Red Sox have played 20 games this year. Only three of these twenty games were decided by one run—that’s just 15%. These three games also had a different set of circumstances.

Now that I have talked to you about the Run Line for this game, let me share some stats to help you decide what to do.

1. Curt Schilling has two previous outings this year (Bal and Tex). He pitched 7 innings in both affairs and gave up 1 and 2 runs respectively.
2. In 2005, Schilling did not face the Mariners. This event tends to favor the pitcher.
3. Jaime Moyer has two previous outings this year (LAA and OAK). He pitched about 6 innings on average each game and gave up 3 runs both times.
4. In 2005, Jaime Moyer’s away ERA was 6.11.
5. In 2005, Jaime Moyer pitched against Boston once and has a 20.25 ERA against them.
6. The Seattle bullpen is not pitching well at all. Even the closer is having issues. Given Moyer’s six inning average, the bullpen will have to pitch for 3 innings, unless Moyer gets roughed up.
7. Unless roughed up, Schilling will go 7-8 innings deep, so the bullpen will need to pitch one or two innings.
8. Boston is at home and Seattle flew in from across the country.

I will be on Boston +1.5 -110 tonight.