Here we are on day two and I have found a line that is not right—so I think. I normally don’t bet too much in the first 14 days of the MLB season. I like giving all the starting pitchers a couple of starts so I can better gauge what’s going on this year. Tonight’s MLB play is going off in a couple of hours from now so let’s get right to it.

The Game: Los Angeles Angels at Seattle Mariners (+105) Over/Under 8

John Lackey takes the mound for the Los Angeles Angels and Joel Pineiro takes the mound for the Seattle Mariners. I remember the days when you would rarely see a Mariners game with an under/over line below 9-10. Tonight’s line of 8 is just too low. Yesterday, the teams combined for 9 total runs and the Mariners were, by in large, shut down. The big two giants in the lineup (Beltre and Sexson) were blanked and Ichiro only had one hit. Even with this poor performance by the Mariners, they still managed to score 4 runs.

I am looking at the pitchers tonight and for the Mariners, I see a pitcher in Joel Pineiro who always gives up runs. His spring training was horrible. He pitched 11 innings and had a 5.73 ERA. I don’t expect too much of a change tonight. The bullpen of the Mariners is pretty shaky as well. On the other side, we have John Lackey who pitched 14 innings in spring training and had a 5.52 ERA. Both teams are sending mediocre pitchers to the mound and both teams can score. This game is screaming OVER. I thought the over in this game would be set to 9-10.

If we are to look at last year, the story is pretty clear. Joel Pineiro was 7-11 with a 5.62 ERA. His home ERA was 5.52, just slightly better than his road ERA. He gave up more than one hit per inning. Conversely, John Lackey was 14-5 with a 3.44 ERA. He pitched pretty well on the road (3.12 ERA). However, Seattle owned him (4.95 ERA verses Seattle). Against Seattle, he gave up more than one hit per inning.

So here’s the first MLB totals play of the 2006 MLB season. LAA/SEA OVER 8