Today’s match up features the LA Angels on the road at Oakland for the first game of the series. On the mound we have John Lackey (LA) and Rich Harden (OAK). The A’s are favored in this one (-142) and the under/over is 7.5. Both Let’s start breaking this game down and see what we have. The game is going off at 10:05pm EST.

Rich Harden (OAK)

Rich Harden’s ERA is 3.66 so far this year over his three starts. He is averaging right around 6 and 1/3 innings pitched per start. His home ERA is 4.97. If we note that his lone good game was against the struggling Mariners and pull it, his true ERA is 4.97 this year. It’s up to you on making that call, but I feel factoring a one run performance against a weaker offensive team like the Mariners does not do us justice. In 2005, Harden had a stellar year. He had a 2.55 ERA against the LA Angels in four appearances. We can count on Harden, unless he’s yanked, for about 6 innings—possibly 7. Factor in the bullpen for about 2 innings.

John Lackey (LA)

John Lackey’s ERA this year is 4.26 in his three starts. He is averaging 6 innings per start. He had one really bad start—as many pitchers do. If we removed this probably rare occurrence, we can get a more accurate picture. In his other two starts, he pitched an average of 7 and 2/3rds inning and gave up 2 runs in each game. Those two performances were against Baltimore and Texas. Last season John Lackey faced Oakland five times and had a 2.93 ERA. His away ERA was 3.12. It depends on how you look at it, but if we determine that John Lackey is the pitcher seen in 2 of his 3 starts this year, we can count on him for 7 innings of work. In fact, he could pitch into the 8th inning, which would open the way, if the Angels were winning, for the closer to come in to finish the game.

Oakland Athletics

The A’s have played 16 games to this point and they are 7-9. They have scored 66 runs, which is a 4 runs per game average—the lower end of the runs per game spectrum. Last season the A’s met the Angels for ten games at home and they split the series 5-5. Lackey pitched against them three of the ten games and the Angels won two of the three. There was one Lackey-Harden match up in Oakland last season and the Angels won that game 9-2. The A’s have a .243 avg and .315 OBP against right-handed pitching. Their home avg and OBP is even worse at .231 and .288 respectively. They are batting .231 with runners in scoring position. When the A’s hitters are down 0-1 in the count, their average plummets to .187 and they are hitting just .136 with two strikes in the count.

LA Angels

The Angels have played 16 games this season and they are a .500 club at 8-8. They have put 80 runs on the board, which is an average of 5 runs per game. In the section on Oakland, I mentioned details about the 2005 meetings between these two clubs. Against right-handed pitching, the club is hitting .267 with a .321 OBP. These numbers go up when the Angels hit the road—.273 and .326 respectively. The Angels know how to get it down when runners get into scoring position. This year, with runners in scoring position, they are hitting .296—their OBP jumps to .361. Their hitting is pretty solid up and down the lineup. When their hitters fall behind 0-1, they still have a .261 average. When the count is 0-2, they have a .221 average.

Conclusion

I like the Angels in this one. The game looks to be pretty evenly matched with the Angels having a slight edge. What’s better is the fact that we can get +132 by taking the Angels. While home field does have a certain advantage, the Angels are road warriors. Also, Oakland is one place in the league where playing at home is not really much of an advantage. Both teams had to travel to Oakland. The A’s came from Detroit and the Angels from Minnesota. The Angels had an early game, which allowed them to get back sooner. I am taking the Angels and the +132 tonight.