Detroit Tigers at Seattle Mariners

Last night’s game between the Tigers and Mariners was a low scoring affair. The Mariners made some minor league mistakes that cost them at least two runs. As a result, they lost 2-1. While both of these teams normally score more runs per game on average, last night’s low scoring game was expected given who was on the mound. The Mariners had sent perhaps their best pitcher to the mound and the Tigers sent a pitcher who is doing very well this year. However, tonight looks to be a different matter. Let’s take a look at this game.

Gill Meche (SEA)

The Mariners are sending Gil Meche to the mound. This once highly-touted pitcher has never fully recovered from arm injuries and is now pretty much a middle of the rotation kind of guy. He’s normally good for 6 innings of work and he will normally give up at least a couple of runs. Meche has only pitched at home once this year. It was against Oakland. He pitched 5.1 innings and gave up 5 hits, one homerun, 2 walks and 2 runs. Since there is limited action this year, we have to take a peek at last season. In 2005, Meche had a home ERA of 5.01. Here’s the kicker. He pitched against Detroit twice last season (both games in Detroit) and had a 10.80 ERA against them. Detroit was a team Meche struggled against. If last year is any indication, we can expect Meche to give up 7-8 hits tonight. As far as innings pitched goes, we can’t pull that data in, because he only lasted an average of 3 innings against Detroit. In 2006, Meche is averaging 5 innings pitched, which is not good considering the Mariners bullpen has not been up to par. Last season, he averaged around 5 innings as well.

Nate Robertson (DET)

Nate Robertson, while being a leftie, most likely won’t enjoy the same level of success that Maroth had last night. By the way, Maroth is now 3-0 with a 0.49 ERA. Like I said, last night’s low scoring game was predicted. Nate Robertson has one road appearance this year—against Texas. His ERA on the road is 5.06. His last outing, at home, was a complete disaster. He could not make it out of the third inning as the Indians had tattooed him for 8 hits, one walk and six runs. Nate Robertson has faced the Mariners before. Last season, he had one game against the Mariners and it was not a good one. He surrendered 9 hits, two homeruns, two walks and 5 earned runs in that game. This season he is averaging 4 and 2/3rds innings pitched. In 2005, he averaged 6 innings pitched. Look for the Detroit bullpen to work a few innings tonight.

Detroit Tigers

The Detroit Tigers are scoring 5.1 runs per game on average. The have a respectable .281 team average. Verses right-handed pitching their average swells to .304 and their OBP is a healthy .346. Those averages on the road are about the same. They have an average shot at getting home runners in scoring position (.264 avg .331 OBP). The Tiger hitters are .294 when down in the count 0-1 and their OBP is .336.

Seattle Mariners

The Seattle Mariners are scoring 4.6 runs per game on average. Their team average is a about middle of the road at .255. They do struggle against left-handed pitching—.212 avg and .288 OBP. They are fairly good, hitting wise, with runners on base and tend to move them along—when nothing making mental mistakes. With runners in scoring position, the Mariners are just average. They are hitting .232, but their OBP is decent (.332). The real weak spot in the lineup has been Adrian Beltre (much to the delight of Dodger fans). He is hitting .175 and is usually costing the Mariners runs. If he starts hitting, the Mariners scoring will experience a significant rise.

Conclusion

The under/over on this game is 9 (even money). I like the over play here. You have two pitchers on the mound who are known to give up hits and runs. You have two fairly decent teams that can score. Their average combined runs per game is over 9, but we have two run-giving pitchers on the mound today. When you add everything up, this game has a very strong potential to sail over. Look at last night’s game as a comparison. You had two dominant pitchers take the mound and the game went under. While the Mariners do struggle against left-handed pitching, they did not struggle against Nate Robertson last season. I am looking for the Mariners to have a good 5-6 run performance tonight and I think Meche will give up his normal 3-4 runs. Both bullpens figure to play heavily in tonight’s game—about 3 innings each side. Neither pitcher is known for their inning eating ability.