I was talking to a baseball betting friend today and he was asking me about the game between Tampa Bay at Boston. I told him that I did not like the Red Sox in the game, but he was pretty adamant about playing the Red Sox. More specially, the Red Sox on the run line. I did not know why considering the stats showed that the game would probably be close. He tend went on to tell me about how the Red Sox pitcher, Tim Wakefield, has owned Tampa Bay over the last 20-something games. So, does history matter? The short answer is maybe.

History matters when it’s individual vs. individual history, but it does not mean much when it’s team vs. team. It’s a concept that I preceded to explain to my baseball betting friend—after he bet on the Red Sox. While Tim Wakefield may have had many dominant performances against Tampa Bay over his career, just how many players on today’s Tampa Bay team were on those past teams? If the team is not the same, why treat it as such? The fact is, unless Tim Wakefield had showed dominance against the individual players that were on today’s team, that historic fact means nothing to the baseball bettor.

If you are looking a stat between two individuals, then history matters—to some degree. For example, if you notice that Ichiro Suzuki is hitting .487 against Pitcher X, that history matters. It’s really a simple rule. If the key elements in the stat have changed significantly, the stat is no longer relevant. As I write this, Tampa Bay is going into the ninth inning with a 3-1 lead over Boston.